What’s hot, what’s not, and what’s up with those millennials? I asked Michial Miller, a Christian publishing expert at NPD BookScan, who studies the Christian market as well as the academic and trade markets.
What is NPD BookScan?
Michial: We’re probably best known for our Nielsen BookScan. Nielsen purchased BookScan in 2017. BookScan tracks the print book industry and covers about 85% of the print market. We also have products like PubTrack Digital, which tracks the ebook and audiobook markets.
NPD owns both of those products, and I work in the Entertainment Segment division. We’re alongside video games, toys, and the juvenile markets, and basically anything in the entertainment space. Our goal is to understand the book market, track trends, and analyze point-of-sale data from retailers. PubTrack Digital differs from BookScan in that it collects sales data directly from publishers.
Thomas: You get data from bookstores on print book sales and from publishers on digital sales.
Michial: That’s right. Publishers that subscribe to PubTrack Digital share their ebook sales data with us. For BookScan, we collect data from retailers such as Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and others. Altogether, we cover about 85% of the print market. We’re strongest in the trade market, and the Christian segment is also well represented in that data.
Does BookScan include Amazon ebook data?
Thomas: Do you have Amazon ebook data in your data set?
Michial: We do, but only when publishers provide it. We receive ebook sales that happen through Amazon, but not Kindle Unlimited or self-published titles. It’s limited to the publishers who partner with us.
Thomas: So you don’t have indie data because your numbers come from publishers, not directly from Amazon.
Michial: For PubTrack Digital, that’s the case.
What trends are you seeing in Christian publishing?
Thomas: What’s hot right now, according to your data sources?
Michial: Memoirs are a big trend, especially from people with large audiences and strong platforms. Books like Girl, Wash Your Face sold huge numbers. We’re seeing growth in areas that are spiritual but not necessarily religious. That’s particularly true among millennials. It’s becoming an area of focus for Christian publishers because that’s what consumers are buying.
What does “spiritual but not religious” mean?
Michial: Within the Christian segment, publishers are producing content that isn’t strongly dogmatic or theological but still reflects Christian values. The author might be a Christian, but the book doesn’t necessarily explore the finer points of theology.
These books appeal to readers who may not identify as Christians but are interested in spirituality as a path to peace, meaning, or altruism. As Christian publishers seek to expand their markets, this “spiritual but not religious” category is becoming increasingly important.
Thomas: Would you consider Girl, Wash Your Face an example of that trend?
Michial: I’d say it’s close. Rachel Hollis is a Christian writing from her own perspective, and the book is from a Christian publisher, so in that sense it’s a Christian book. But it’s not like Mere Christianity or Ethics by Dietrich Bonhoeffer. It’s not a devotional, but it’s grounded in scriptural principles that resonate with Christian readers and readers who don’t identify as Christian.
What other categories are trending?
Michial: Lifestyle books are huge right now. These include spirituality, home design, cooking, and anything that makes the home more comfortable. The trend extends beyond books into other markets. Consumers who buy devices like Alexa and Echo, or who stream Netflix, are also buying books. It’s part of a holistic consumer pattern.
Lifestyle publishing is growing because it aligns with how people are living and consuming content.
On the other end of the spectrum, political and historical books continue to perform strongly. Political titles were especially dominant in 2017 and 2018, and although that’s slowed slightly, it remains a major part of the market.
Thomas: What are Christian lifestyle books and Christian cookbooks? What would that even look like?
Michial: I don’t see many Christian cookbooks, but there’s certainly potential for them. A book built around biblical meals or cooking from a faith-based perspective could do well.
Consumers are interested in cookbooks, especially those written by celebrities. Authors like Chrissy Teigen and Joanna Gaines are selling millions of copies, and that doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
What genres are declining in sales?
Michial: Across the book market, we’re seeing a continued decline in fiction, and that’s been happening for a while. Most active book buyers are already engaged readers, so when sales shift, it’s often a matter of them buying different types of books rather than new readers entering the market.
Nonfiction categories such as lifestyle, politics, and history are drawing readers away from fiction. This trend is also true in the Christian market, where Christian fiction is declining even faster than fiction in the broader trade market. Hopefully, that will turn around, but for now, it’s one of the most notable areas of decline.
Are indie authors changing fiction trends?
Thomas: I want to push back a little on that. We had Alex Newton from K-lytics, one of your competitors, on the show. He focuses on the indie and Kindle markets. According to his data, overall Kindle fiction sales are up, but all the growth is in indie publishing.
Heavy readers, who read 100 or more books per year, are switching to cheaper indie titles instead of traditionally published ones. They use Kindle Unlimited or buy $2.99 ebooks rather than $12.99 hardcovers. It’s not that people are reading less fiction; they’re just reading different authors. In certain genres, like military science fiction, most top authors are now indie.
Michial: That’s a fair point. We don’t track Kindle Unlimited or most indie ebook sales, so those numbers aren’t reflected in our data. But even looking across multiple sources, the overall ebook market is smaller than it used to be.
Ebooks peaked around 2013 at about 33% of total book sales. Now they’re closer to 23%. Fiction still performs better in ebooks than nonfiction does, but because ebooks are a smaller slice of the total market, it doesn’t shift the overall trend much.
Why is fiction stronger in digital formats?
Thomas: The Kindle is actually a poor device for reading nonfiction because nonfiction readers often skip around or look things up. Kindle’s linear format—start on page one and go to page two—doesn’t work well for that.
With fiction, though, the Kindle’s limitations are a feature, not a bug. It makes it harder to spoil the ending. Fiction also dominates audiobooks. Paper remains the best interface for nonfiction because you can navigate it nonlinearly, highlight passages, and flip between sections.
People keep saying paper books are dying, but the data doesn’t support that. Paper books have been around for thousands of years, and I suspect they’ll be around for thousands more.
What trends are you seeing among millennial readers?
Thomas: Older generations had shared cultural touchstones such as the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, and a handful of TV stations. But millennials are fragmented. We have millions of bands, thousands of YouTube channels, and no shared pop culture.
What trends are you seeing among millennials, and what advice would you give to authors trying to reach younger readers?
Michial: Among millennials, especially Christian millennials, we’re seeing the rise of what’s called “spiritual but not religious.” They’re seeking books that explore meaning, purpose, and connection to something larger than themselves.
In a highly individualistic, postmodern culture, many millennials crave community and social engagement. Social justice and altruism are major drivers. At the same time, many reject traditional religious institutions. They want spirituality without rigid structures.
Within Christian publishing, millennial readers are less interested in dense theology and more in honest, relational discussions of faith, doubt, and skepticism. They want authenticity and vulnerability from writers who tell the truth about their struggles while still expressing hope.
This isn’t limited to Christian readers. Even secular millennials are drawn to contemplative or monastic authors like Thomas Merton. It resonates with their search for meaning in a divided culture.
For Christian authors, that means being real about faith, doubt, and the tension between them. Younger readers appreciate honesty over perfection. That’s what resonates most deeply.
How do millennials differ from earlier generations?
Thomas: There’s definitely a hunger for authenticity and almost zero tolerance for posing or pretense. Millennials seem less combative than Gen X or the baby boomers, who were ready to “change the world” through confrontation.
Of course, there are pockets of very combative millennials, especially in political activism, but that’s a small fraction. In general, millennials value kindness. At the same time, they participate in and enjoy watching outrage culture—the social-media phenomenon where someone new becomes the target of collective anger every week.
It’s like a digital French Revolution, with the mob demanding a new victim at the guillotine. But if you ever find yourself at the center of that outrage, take heart; they’ll forget you in a week when the mob moves on to the next person.
How is global connectedness shaping millennial culture?
Michial: There’s a level of global connectedness today that humanity has never experienced before. With that comes constant conversation in direct messages, arguments, and cultural exchanges. When people engage directly, many of the old stereotypes and quick judgments about others start to break down.
At the same time, online outrage over cultural moments or public controversies creates new forms of interaction. People want to speak honestly about what they know to be true and are more skeptical about what they can’t verify. That skepticism is healthy in some ways, though it comes with the downside of widespread misinformation and “fake news.” Millennials are the first generation fully immersed in this digital dialogue, and these patterns will continue with Gen Z and future generations.
How is communication changing between generations?
Thomas: One big difference I’ve noticed is how younger millennials and Gen Z communicate compared to older millennials. Younger generations rarely post publicly. They prefer private, one-to-one communication through apps like Snapchat, Facebook Messenger, or text messages.
Older millennials and Gen Xers are more likely to post publicly on Facebook or Twitter. The stereotype that millennials overshare online isn’t really true anymore; it’s mostly older users doing that. Younger people prefer tools like Snapchat, where messages disappear after a short time. It’s a much more private, fleeting form of communication.
As an older millennial, I blog about everything, but younger people I know are far more private. It’s a real shift in how people express themselves online.
What impact will Lifeway’s store closures have on Christian publishing?
Thomas: Lifeway is closing its stores, which is a major change in Christian retailing. What impact do you see that having on the Christian writing and publishing market?
Michial: With Lifeway stores closing, their customers will need to find new places to buy books. For most, that will mean going to Amazon, so we’ll likely see an increase in Christian book sales there. Lifeway.com will continue selling directly to consumers, but its main focus is on serving churches.
Other Christian retailers such as CBD, Parable, and Urban Ministries will probably pick up some of the business. But overall, Amazon will be the biggest winner.
Publishers are also rethinking their strategies. Many are focusing more on direct-to-consumer sales, which isn’t unique to the Christian industry. Publishers across the market are trying to figure out how to reach readers directly and reduce their dependence on Amazon, even as they continue partnering with it.
We’re also seeing Christian publishers experiment with event sales by bundling books with event tickets or conferences as a way to engage directly with their audiences.
Why have publishers been slow to connect directly with readers?
Thomas: I’ve always been surprised by how hesitant publishers are to interact directly with readers. Historically, they’ve put barriers between themselves and the audience.
I’ve often wondered why there was never a Christian version of Columbia House Records—a subscription model where readers get a few books free and then a new one each month for a set fee. It would flip the model so that publishers find books for their subscribers rather than finding readers for each book.
I agree with Seth Godin that this subscription or community-based approach is the future of publishing. Hollywood figured this out long ago. The studios making the most money, like Disney, almost never start from scratch. They build on established universes. The latest Avengers movie, for example, was the twenty-first or twenty-second in its series. It had a built-in fan base.
Publishers have a similar opportunity with author brands. If a reader loves an author’s last three books, they’ll probably buy the fourth. Yet most publishers haven’t developed strong brand identities or imprints that mean something to readers. There’s untapped potential there.
Are church bookstores becoming more influential?
Thomas: Another trend I’m curious about is churches opening their own bookstores. As Lifeway closes, more people seem to be buying books at church coffee shops and lobbies. Are you tracking that?
Michial: Yes, I’ve been talking with church bookstore managers and others setting up retail spaces in churches, coffee shops, and small gift stores. It’s a growing trend, and we’re working to capture that data because those are meaningful, organic sales.
We partner with Parable and Givington’s to collect sales data from smaller stores and church-based retailers. They aggregate that information and share it with us. This helps us better understand how books are selling at the community level.
As traditional retail stores decline, new outlets, like church bookstores, are becoming more important. The Christian market is leading the way in direct-to-consumer engagement. Other publishing sectors could learn from how Christian publishers are adapting.
How is the retail landscape shifting?
Thomas: It’s funny to think about how the movie You’ve Got Mail was about Barnes & Noble putting local bookstores out of business. Now, twenty years later, the situation has reversed. Big-box bookstores are being displaced by indie stores.
In the Christian market, indie bookstores connected to churches have a huge advantage. A church with 10,000 members has thousands of people walking past its bookstore every Sunday. That’s the kind of foot traffic Lifeway could only dream of.
If a pastor decides to feature a particular book, that single decision can drive significant sales. Twenty years ago, the key influencers were the buyers at Lifeway or Family Christian Stores. Those companies no longer exist, and the influence has shifted to local churches.
It will be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next few years. We’ll have to wait and see who the new gatekeepers are and how Christian books reach readers now that Lifeway’s retail presence is gone.
How are Christian authors different from others in the publishing world?
Michial: Additionally, Christian authors are very different from authors in other parts of the publishing world. You don’t see many J.D. Salinger-type hermits writing alone in the woods. Most Christian authors are communicators and expositors. They’re pastors, speakers, or social media influencers. They’re used to being in front of people, sharing their message, and connecting personally with audiences.
When readers see an author in person and hear them speak, they’re far more likely to buy that author’s book. Churches are in a unique position to help facilitate that connection, especially when the author is a pastor or leader within a denomination. Church bookstores provide a natural space for those authors to engage directly with their congregations and sell their books to people who already value their message.
What encouragement do you have for authors without a large platform?
Thomas: What encouragement do you have for authors who might feel intimidated? Some may be thinking, “What if I’m not a pastor or a celebrity?”
Michial: If it’s a good book, it will stand out. Focus on writing the best book you can. If you have a story that only you can tell, tell it. Don’t let concerns about your platform hold you back.
Work with an editor or find a publishing house that believes in your work and can help bring it to readers. Pay attention to the market, but don’t let it silence your voice. Many powerful books have come from people outside the spotlight. Step out in faith, write what you’re called to write, and move forward from there.
Where can people learn more about NPD BookScan?
Thomas: Where can people find out more about NPD BookScan?
Michial: You can visit our website at www.npd.com/perspective/npd-bookscan-indecision-key-resource. We have a lot of information there about BookScan and PubTrack Digital. If you want to learn more about book data, feel free to reach out to me directly at michial.miller@npd.com or give me a call.
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